This may take a while, please be patient. snoopy happy dance emoji A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. . Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. 500mb Height & MSLP. Levi has a Only real snow. several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. Run Next Run FORECAST GIF TREND GIF Precip/Moisture Accessibility; Privacy; Terms of use; Contact us These parameters are calculated over the same weekly periods as the other monthly forecast products and are averaged over an ocean basin. Please be patient. We can handle virtually any shipment! By Friday evening, both the ECMWF and the GFS model solutions show developing tropical cyclones in similar locations at similar strengths. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ECMWF. These models are basically snapshots in time over a period of many days, so you can play time forward into the future and watch low pressure areas form, move, and dissipate. Lower pressures are indicated in dark . (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits) Forecast for 96L. Peak winds: 215 kilometers per hour (115 knots) Minimum pressure: 955 millibars (28.20 inches) Fatalities: 3. air force graduation dates 2022 Deterministic refers to cause and effect. Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan. Please select one of the following: Tropical Cyclone Safety Windows and Doors, Hurricane Preparedness for Property and Business Owners, 2019 Active Hurricane Season Comes To An End, 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Officially Ends, 2023 Hurricane Season Track The Tropics Spaghetti Models. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021102212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_ea_8.png We're producing your requested images. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached. The Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) is a global model developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Tropical storm frequency. sion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership. of . The closer the lines are to each other, the stronger the winds. This site is AD FREE so I rely on donations to keep it running. In 0Z and 6Z Friday runs, the top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all saw 96L developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. These are what can potentially become tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes. Get our Free VIPP Podcast - it's a way to join our community of Very Important People Preparing. [#NerdTweet] While the 0Z ECMWF nudged slightly toward the GFS with more vorticity near NW Florida, the GFS is still whiffing a bit. ECMWF model mean sea-level pressure (mb) and surface wind speed (kt) as of 7:00pm CDT Monday, September 5 // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits A FOX13news.com site.TM and document.write(new Date().getFullYear()); Fox Television Stations, Inc., and its related entities.All rights reserved. Learn how to forecast and use the Tropical Tidbits weather models. Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. Climate models like the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and NMME provide monthly to seasonal forecasts. Tropical Tidbits ECMWF Model. Two of the top-performing global dynamical models for hurricane track, the European (ECMWF) and GFS models, are typically not considered by NHC forecasters when making intensity forecasts. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. Though the focus As Tropical Storm Ian moves north, the ECMWF is trending toward a new storm forming behind it late this week: https://t.co/abLuPkFKbC The dearchivation takes up to one minute. Tropical Tidbits January 30 at 10:22 AM Celebrating 10 years of tropicaltidbits.com with a significant expan . Overnight, the National Hurricane Center added another region that theyre watching for the potential for tropical cyclone development, this time much closer to home in the northern Gulf of Mexico As Sincere said in the last post, even though its still early in the season, were keeping a close eye on these two disturbances and any hazards that they may bring. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. Tomer Burg's analyses and forecast maps. The GFS has performed the best this season on tropical systems. We're producing your requested images. ECMWF Model - Tropical Tidbits. Soundings with limited data are available. Tropical Tidbits Note from Audra: A friend of mine told me about TropicalTidbits.com earlier this week. Tuesday evening video update: Watching Four (maybe more?) The dearchivation takes up to one minute. User Manual: ACS Universal Remote WG . Copyright 2012-2023 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved. People can share their observations, start their own threads that may be location specific, or post in the official threads for each storm. Show this thread Dr. Levi Cowan 850 hPa Okubo-Weiss and Dilatation Axes. Thus, different models produce different final results. We are watching a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, which will trek westward and approach Central America by Friday or Saturday. Beyond the good medium-range track prediction skill of the ECMWF model, its high resolution has shown potential for useful intensity forecasting. Loading. Numerical Weather Prediction Disturbance is located underneath an area of upper-level divergence over Florida, which has been responsible for the development of a weak surface low pressure and associated showers and thunderstorms in region. People can share their observations, start their own threads that may be location specific, or post in the official threads for each storm. These models made poor intensity forecasts in 2021, as evident in Figure 4. Damage: $10 billion (2019 USD) Replaced with: Nongfa. Know what's happening with your shipment down to the minute. 2023 HunkerDown.Guide, All Rights Reserved. Both ensemble outputs suggest that a weaker system would likely remain further south, and that a stronger system would likely curve northward toward Honduras, Belize and Mexico. This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. Loading. The ECMWF does not alter its initial fields for Tropical Cyclones. Here is a map from Tropical Tidbits showing the ECMWF. Global Forecast System (gfs) - NOAA - Global Model - Every 6 Hours Snow depth (in) Update times: ca. At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The latest Tweets from Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits). As the site grows, though, server costs increase, mostly due to the forecast models page and the data processing required to create all those plots. Of course, always check the National Hurricane Center for the official forecasts. An ensemble forecast takes the output from many deterministic models and creates an average or consensus. These products consist of: Tropical cyclone activity: these products are based on tropical cyclone activity throughout the forecast. Tropical Tidbits Note from Audra: A friend of mine told me about TropicalTidbits.com earlier this week. This data product is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Only real snow. Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields. As of June 20, 2006, the NAM model has been running with a non-hydrostatic version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at its core. 130 (pp 17-23) ECMWF moves #Sam a little faster and intensifies it later than GFS, leading to a more southerly track, closer to the Leewards. (Very Important People Preparation) News. Calories In Eggs Benedict No Hollandaise, The relative humidity paints a similar, hostile picture, with large bodies of dry air across most of the Atlantic, and only a sliver of moist air along the ITCZ. Weve already analyzed the steering mechanisms behind this disturbance, so lets jump right in by looking at how the wind shear develops over time. The ECWMF model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble. Climate models like the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and NMME provide monthly to seasonal forecasts. and largest cities in south australia. . The 00z ECMWF run from this morning shows us the upper-level steering patters currently present in the Atlantic Basin. Accessibility; Privacy; Terms of use; Contact us The ECWMF model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble. Like the medium and extended ranges, the long range forecasts are produced by the IFS coupled ocean-atmosphere model. the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) which is the sum of the squares of the estimated maximum sustained velocity of every active tropical storm at six-hour intervals). This page supplies graphical forecasts from numerical weather models. The ECWMF ensemble model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z out to 10 days in the future. Z850, Vort, & Wind. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. ECMWF Model Description. NCEP has replaced the WRF-NMM model with a high-resolution FV3 model (3 km) for the CONUS, This website is solely owned and operated by Charles Kenyon Gladu and is in no way officially affiliated with Virginia Tech. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). 18 talking about this. The following global weather models are available: MULTI-GLOBAL ( Multi Model ), ECMWF IFS HRES, ECMWF 6z/18z, ICON, GFS, GEM, UKMO, ACCESS-G, ARPEGE, CMA, GDAPS/UM What are weather models? First, lets look in depth at the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, as its the closest to home. Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama, I asked ChatGPT how to prepare for severe weather, it got a passing grade but missed on a few key spots, Wx Info: Do you like seeing numbers in the forecast? Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ECMWF. In the middle of the Atlantic sits the subtropical high, which is broken up some by a weak upper-level . Levi uses a number of other top models in his forecasts, because they all have strengths and weaknesses. Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995. weather underground. Clicking on a spot shows what the ECMWF IFS (Integrated Forecast System) predicts the subsequent . Celebrating 10 years of tropicaltidbits.com with a significant expansion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership. These products consist of: Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. Through precise integration of monitored and computerized refrigeration equipment with efficient cargo movement systems, Tropical ensures reliable shipments of chilled and frozen products. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. The mesoscale hurricane models HWRF and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. Anomaly. ECMWF Model - 500mb Height & MSLP for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Current Storms Aircraft Recon Satellite Imagery Forecast Models Analysis Tools About Numerical Model Prediction Support Tropical Tidbits ECMWF Run Time: 18Z Feb 28 Global Ensemble Hurricane Mesoscale Climate REGIONS Prev. This system also contains, when available, global model data downloaded directly from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. All preparations should be complete. Title Tropical Tidbits Tips Description Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan. These are the parameters most frequently viewed by our users. Good morning, folks! Everything you need to monitor the tropics in one place. Long term predictions rely on aspects of Earth system variability which have long time scales (months to years) and are, to a certain . He only does these when there is a storm system worthy of tracking. Owner/developer of https://t.co/hrCHBEvDFt. Current Website Time It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Tropical Tidbits. These products consist of: Latest tropical cyclone forecast: generated automatically whenever a tropical cyclone is observed (reported via the Global Telecommunication System) at the initial time of the forecast and is The dearchivation takes up to one minute. Place prepared pineapple in an ice cube tray. Climate models like the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and NMME provide monthly to seasonal forecasts. PhD in meteorology from FSU. Lastly, it is important to look at the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as they are the driving force for the energy of a tropical cyclone. Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. The shear situation is largely similar to the situation now, as the first upper-level ridge over the region retreats westward and weakens, and the interaction between the upper-level low off the East Coast and a strengthening ridge off the Southeast Coast lead to relatively high wind shear values off the coast of Florida. 101 Things You Can Do To Prepare For a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes . At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. Latest tropical cyclone forecast: generated automatically whenever a tropical cyclone is observed (reported via the Global Telecommunication System) at the initial time of the forecast and is present in the high-resolution forecast and/or ensemble (ENS), NOAA NESDIS GIBBS satellite archive. 20 talking about this. several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. Tuesday evening video discussion on Tropical Storm Cristobal, a continuing flooding threat to Central America, and eventually the southern U.S. The GFS on the other hand, does show a weak velocity signature at 700mb, showing that the system is attempting to form a tighter circulation before coming ashore around the same time Wednesday afternoon. MSLP & 10m Wind. As the site grows, though, server costs increase, mostly due to the forecast models page and the data processing required to create all those plots. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. The two regions that the NHC is watching for possible development are due to Disturbance 2 and Disturbance 4. A turn to the northeast is expected this evening. 98.9k members in the TropicalWeather community. We're producing your requested images. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. Though the focus will be on tropical meteorology, it will also be a place for people to stay in touch before, during, and after tropical weather events. The GFS is created by the United States National Weather Service on its massive super computer. 98.9k members in the TropicalWeather community. Enter key: Update Plot ; Left Arrow: Prev Fcst Hour ; Right Arrow: Next Fcst Hour "c" key: Get Cross Section "m" key: Switch Cross/Zoom Mode "o" key: . An ensemble forecast takes the output from many deterministic models and creates an average or consensus. Hanoi Metro Population. Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. ECMWF provides a range of graphical products for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) forecasts. The relative humidity does not change much either, however there is a general increase in the moisture in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Privacy Policy: tropicaltidbits.com/privacy-policy.html. It is also referred to by some as the ECMWF model or the European model. As of June 20, 2006, the NAM model has been running with a non-hydrostatic version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at its core. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Too much precip was forecast near FL coastline and New Orleans this morning, and convection to the south is This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. Press J to jump to the feed. Tropical Systems in the Atlantic. View GFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com. Cute Spanish Nicknames For Boyfriend, Faith Bible Church Pastor, giuliano's deli gardena menu the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) which is the sum of the squares of the estimated maximum sustained velocity of every active tropical storm at six-hour intervals). Above are the ECMWF and GFS ensemble member forecast tracks for this disturbance. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Centre) is an intergovernmental organization supported by 34 countries and based near London. The Centre has one of the largest supercomputer facilities and meteorological data archives in the world. Snow depth (in) Update times: ca. This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. We're producing your requested images. MSLP Norm. Learn how to forecast and use the Tropical Tidbits weather models. In the Gulf, the only sustainable relative humidity values are a result of the convection associated with Disturbance 4. The ECMWF model is run every 12 hours (0 and 12 UTC) out to 240 hours globally. View ECMWF weather model forecast map image for 500 mb Geopotential Height, MSLP in Continental US on pivotalweather.com. Learn how to forecast and use the Tropical Tidbits weather models. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and the National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of this wave becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Mulberry Tree Leaves Poisonous, of Oklahoma, the Univ. Tropical Systems in the Atlantic. ECMWF provides a range of graphical products for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) forecasts. Deterministic refers to cause and effect. Lower pressures are indicated in dark . Senior Scientist at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The ECMWF. Privacy Policy: tropicaltidbits.com/privacy-policy.html. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. Forecasters review all of the model data but use their own experience and scientific expertise to arrive at a final forecast. To make a payment online, you will need to have your account number. ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Tropical Tidbits has always been free, and that is because I love making weather data available and keeping you informed during the hurricane season. One of my favorite long-range hurricane weather forecasting sites is Levi Cowans TropicalTidbits.com. of Wisconsin-Madison, the Univ. Though the focus Of course, any forecast model read a week out is usually only effective in suggesting a potential system. The featured image for this post is from his site, and it shows the Global Forecast System (GFS). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Centre) is an intergovernmental organization supported by 34 countries and based near London. ECMWF Model - Tropical Tidbits. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours. Taking a look at mid-level water vapor imagery, were watching three disturbances located along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) between West Africa and the northern coast of South America, a fourth disturbance currently located over the Southeast, and Tropical Storm Celia, which is labeled as disturbance 5 above. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. RT @TropicalTidbits: With this GEFS Day 10-15 pattern and ECMWF bringing MJO through phase 2-3, may see Atlantic wake up by end of July. tropical cyclone guidance project. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page. View ECMWF weather model forecast map image for 500 mb Geopotential Height, MSLP in Continental US on pivotalweather.com. The ECMWF does not alter its initial fields for Tropical Cyclones. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users This may take a while, please be patient. In the main development region (MDR), the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the SSTs are more than warm enough to support tropical cyclogenesis. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. Finally, by Friday evening, both models depict a strengthening tropical cyclone approaching Nicaragua. Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind! Snow depth (in) Update times: ca. See all our parameters under the "all" tab. Remember that these are mathematical models with varying initial assumptions. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several ht 12:00am-1:00am and 12:00pm-1:00pm for master run and 2:30am and 2:30pm for ensemble data. These products consist of: Tropical Tidbits has always been free, and that is because I love making weather data available and keeping you informed during the hurricane season. There is good agreement that this system will take some time to get organized as it moves west toward the southern Windward Islands. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. snoopy happy dance emoji 8959 norma pl west hollywood ca 90069 8959 norma pl west hollywood ca 90069 He creates an amazing site featuring the best hurricane models and maps. This may take a while, please be patient. Craigslist East Texas Dallas, Check the NHC forecasts for the latest tropical information. Though the focus will be on tropical meteorology, it will also be a place for people to stay in touch before, during, and after tropical weather events. User Manual: ACS Universal Remote WG . We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. By Tuesday evening, the low pressure center of the disturbance can be identified easily on both the ECMWF and GFS. Current UTC Time To the south of the right-most high pressure are Disturbances 1-3, which will continue to move westward throughout the coming days. Anomaly for North Atlantic. ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 11/10/2021/12z. ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 11/10/2021/12z. The mesoscale hurricane models HAFS, HWRF, and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. These products consist of: Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. . ECMWF Model - MSLP & Precip for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Current Storms Aircraft Recon Satellite Imagery Forecast Models Analysis Tools About Numerical Model Prediction Support Tropical Tidbits ECMWF Run Time: 18Z Mar 02 Global Ensemble Hurricane Mesoscale Climate REGIONS Prev. The dearchivation takes up to one minute. Loading. We are both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member and Co-operating States and the broader community. Global models with imagery for the entire world include the ECMWF, GFS, ICON, CMC, NAVGEM, and their associated ensemble prediction systems. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. These products consist of: Latest tropical cyclone forecast: generated automatically whenever a tropical cyclone is observed (reported via the Global Telecommunication System) at the initial time of the forecast and is This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. 1:00am-2:00am and 1:00pm-2:00pm for master run and 3:30am and 3:30pm for ensemble data. uw-m hurricane forecast model output. Enter key: Update Plot ; Left Arrow: Prev Fcst Hour ; Right Arrow: Next Fcst Hour "c" key: Get Cross Section "m" key: Switch Cross/Zoom Mode "o" key: One of the best parts of Levis website are his blog posts which have fascinating YouTube videos. Tropical Tidbits - September 08, 2020 - Watching Four (maybe more?) Evacuate immediately if so ordered. ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 10/23/2021/12z. NOAA NESDIS CIRA Tropical RAMSDIS online. ECMWF (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits) NAVGEM (courtesy of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center) UKMET Model (courtesy of the UQAM Weather Centre) Mesoscale Models NAM from NCEP EMC GEM Model (courtesy of Environment Canada) Penn State/NCAR MM5 (courtesy of NCAR) Rapid Refresh (RAP) from the Earth System Research Laboratory MSLP Anomaly. Loading. We hope your visit was informative and enjoyable. Model charts. 12:00am-1:00am and 12:00pm-1:00pm for master run and 2:30am and 2:30pm for ensemble data. Weather Statements for Selected Locations [ Customize Locations ] Tropical Weather Outlook ( Graphical - 5 day - Discussion - Sat - Wundermap) 9:05 AM EDT 16-Jan-2023 ( History ) Coastal Hazard Message (Florida Panhandle) 3:23 AM EDT ( History) Coastal Hazard .
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