Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. All Rights Reserved. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). 1 digital platform for progressive news, reaching millions of people each month. RCP House Ratings, Map. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. All rights reserved. But a lot has changed in the last few months. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. I'm just trying to convey the truth. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Gas prices have plummeted. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. All rights reserved. They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. But Democratic Gov. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. . President Joe Biden's approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll . Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Condition: --. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . The decline in sentiment largely started after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but gained momentum after Biden was elected, when Johnson made headlines for his statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and skepticism of vaccines. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. 772 days 4 . Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. . If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Biden Job Approval on Issues. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. This is up from 80% a year ago, even though 87% of respondents had deployed anti-virus software. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Have you been living under a rock? Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. George H.W. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. Got a confidential news tip? Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No.