jason heyward fangraphs

Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. The grounders are just about all pulled. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. . Prior to the . The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. This production is, quite frankly, incredible. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. Support FanGraphs. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, This group also aged incredibly well. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. Hes still really young Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. Heres a powerful triple to center. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. by Retrosheet. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Games. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. by Retrosheet. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The No. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Dont look at me. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. The team is confident in . Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Just like I wanted to see one in there. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. That search reveals the following players. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. by Retrosheet. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. . It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. Age is the decisive factor here. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Heres a bomb to right. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. These were the players remaining. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Heyward will get paid. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. I think thats in the ballpark. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Forget about everything else. His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. by Retrosheet. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. by Retrosheet. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Just ask Jason Heyward. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. His average ranking is 7.5. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. $8? and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. He clearly can the man stands 65. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. But the power was largely absent. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. The shift movement had already produced some . Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. by Retrosheet. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. by Handedness. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. Our premise is that their bad (or and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs.